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Döngüsel Bir Ekonomiye Doğru Türkiye: Düşük Karbonlu Bir Ekonomi İçin Genişletilmiş STIRPAT Modeline Dayalı Analiz

Year 2023, Volume: 14 Issue: 100. Yıl Özel Sayısı, 91 - 107, 29.10.2023
https://doi.org/10.21076/vizyoner.1334488

Abstract

Sanayi altyapısının güçlendirilmesi ve kurumsallaşması, üretim esnekliğinin sağlanması, nitelikli insan sermayesi ve inovasyonu teşvik eden Ar-Ge ekosisteminin oluşturulması, ihracatın katma değeri yüksek ürünlerden oluşan güçlü bir yapıya kavuşturulması hususunda teknolojik yetkinlik ve sektörel yol haritalarının belirlenmesi gelişmekte olan ülkelerin büyüme ve kalkınma stratejilerinde belirleyici olmaktadır. Ancak tüm bu hedeflerin sağlanmasında kaynak verimliliğini esas alan, çevreye duyarlı teknolojilerle desteklenmiş üretim süreçlerinin varlığıyla döngüsellik tasarımları, hem küresel ölçekte hem de başta Çin ve AB üyesi ülkeler olmak üzere gelişmiş ülkelerin ulusal politikalarında özellikle küresel iklim kriziyle mücadele çerçevesinde önemli yer tutmaktadır. Bu açıdan Cumhuriyet’in 100. yılında söz konusu dönüşüm ve ‘düşük karbonlu ekonomi modeliyle büyüme’ atılması gereken önemli adımlar arasındadır. Bu bağlamda çalışmada genişletilmiş STIRPAT modeli kullanılmaktadır. Böylelikle, modelin ana unsurları nüfus, refah ve teknolojiye; ticari açıklık, enerji tüketimi ve sanayileşme eklenerek düşük karbonlu bir ekonomi yolunda Türkiye için temel argümanların araştırılmasında daha kapsamlı bir çerçeve sunmak amaçlanmaktadır. Çalışmada 1990-2020 dönemi verileri dikkate alınmakta ve ARDL sınır testi yaklaşımı kullanılmaktadır. Bulgulara göre, uzun dönemde, kişi başı gelir, ticari açıklık ve enerji tüketiminin artması daha fazla karbon emisyonu yaratmaktadır. Ayrıca kısa dönemde oluşacak bir dengeden sapma, 1,14 yıl sonra düzelerek uzun dönem dengesine yakınsamaktadır ve uyarlanma sürecinin hızlı olduğu söylenebilmektedir.

References

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  • Mutascu, M. (2018). A time-frequency analysis of trade openness and CO2 emissions in France. Energy Policy, 115, 443-455.
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  • Nedelea, A. M., Mironiuc, M., Huian, M. C., Bîrsan, M. ve Bedrule-Grigoruţă, M. V. (2018). Modelled interdependencies between intellectual capital, circular economy and economic growth in the context of bioeconomy. Amfiteatru Economic, 20(49), 616-630.
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Turkey Towards A Circular Economy: Analysis Based on the Extended STIRPAT Model for A Low-Carbon Economy

Year 2023, Volume: 14 Issue: 100. Yıl Özel Sayısı, 91 - 107, 29.10.2023
https://doi.org/10.21076/vizyoner.1334488

Abstract

The determination of technological competence and sectoral road maps in terms of establishing and strengthening industrial infrastructure, enhancing production flexibility, promoting qualified human capital and innovation through the creation of an R&D ecosystem, and achieving a strong structure based on high-value-added exports play significant roles for the growth and development strategies of developing countries. However, for achieving all these goals requires the presence of resource-efficient production processes supported by environmentally friendly technologies and circular designs are of quite crucial for the construction of national policies particularly for the combat against global climate change at the global scale and for the developed countries, including China and EU member states. In this regard, it is thought that the aforementioned transformation and “growth with a low-carbon economic model” are required among the steps to be taken in the 100th year of the Republic. In this context expanded STIRPAT model is employed in the study. By adding the variables such as trade openness, energy consumption and industrialization to the main variables of model, namely population, welfare and technology, a more comprehensive framework is aimed to be presented for Turkey in the attainment of a low-carbon economy. In the study, data for the 1990-2020 period is utilized and are tested with ARDL bounds test. According to the results, in the long run, an increase in per capita income, trade openness, and energy consumption leads to higher carbon emissions. Additionally, the deviation from a short-term equilibrium will improve after 1.14 years and converge to the long-term equilibrium.

References

  • Apostu, S. A., Gigauri, I., Panait, M. ve Martín-Cervantes, P. A. (2023). Is Europe on the way to sustainable development? Compatibility of green environment, economic growth, and circular economy issues. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 20(2), 1078.
  • Bahmani-Oskooee, M. ve Ng, R. C. W. (2002). Long-run demand for money in Hong Kong: an application of the ARDL model. International Journal Of Business and Economics, 1(2), 147.
  • Balbay, Ş., Sarıhan, A. ve Avşar, E. (2021). Dünya’da ve Türkiye’de döngüsel ekonomi/endüstriyel sürdürülebilirlik yaklaşımı, European Journal of Science and Technology, 27: 557-569.
  • Boulding, K. E. (2013). The economics of the coming spaceship earth. In Environmental quality in a growing economy (s. 3-14). RFF Press. http://www.ub.edu/prometheus21/articulos/obsprometheus/boulding.pdf adresinden 19 Temmuz 2023 tarihinde alınmıştır.
  • Bölük, G. ve Güven, M. (2022). The role of tourism, energy consumption, urbanization, and economic growth on ecological footprint: The Turkish case . Avrupa Bilim ve Teknoloji Dergisi, (38), 440-449.
  • Brown, R. L., Durbin, J. ve Evans, J. M. (1975). Techniques for testing the constancy of regression relationships over time. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B: Statistical Methodology, 37(2), 149-163.
  • Chen, P. (2022). The spatial impacts of the circular economy on carbon intensity-new evidence from the super-efficient SBM-DEA model. Energy ve Environment, 0958305X221125125.
  • Dar, A. A., Hameed, J., Huo, C., Sarfraz, M., Albasher, G., Wang, C. ve Nawaz, A. (2022). Recent optimization and panelizing measures for green energy projects; insights into CO2 emission influencing to circular economy. Fuel, 314, 123094.
  • Dickey, D. A. ve Fuller, W. A. (1981). Likelihood ratio statistics for autoregressive time series with a unit root. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, 49(4), 1057-1072.
  • Dietz, T. ve Rosa, E. A. (1994). Rethinking the environmental impacts of population, affluence and technology. Human Ecology Review, 1(2), 277-300.
  • Dietz, T. ve Rosa, E. A. (1997). Effects of population and affluence on CO2 emissions. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 94(1), 175-179.
  • Ehrlich, P. R. ve Holdren, J. P. (1971). Impact of population growth: complacency concerning this component of man's predicament is unjustified and counterproductive. Science, 171(3977), 1212-1217.
  • Ekins, P., Domenech, T., Drummond, P., Bleischwitz, R., Hughes, N. ve Lotti, L. (2019). The circular economy: what, why, how and where. OECD/EC Workshop on 5 July 2019, Paris.
  • Ellen MacArthur Foundation. (2019). Circular economy systems diagram. https://ellenmacarthurfoundation.org/circular-economy-diagram adresinden 19 Temmuz 2023 tarihinde alınmıştır.
  • Ellen MacArthur Foundation. (2021). The nature iımperative: how the circular economy tackles biodiversity loss. https://ellenmacarthurfoundation.org/biodiversity-report adresinden 19 Temmuz 2023 tarihinde alınmıştır.
  • Erataş, F. ve Uysal, D. (2014). Çevresel Kuznets eğrisi yaklaşımının “Brict” ülkeleri kapsamında değerlendirilmesi. İstanbul Üniversitesi İktisat Fakültesi Mecmuası, 64(1), 1-25.
  • GAİB (Güneydoğu Anadolu İhracatçı Birlikleri). (2022). Avrupa Birliği sanayi stratejisi ve döngüsel ekonomi eylem planı. Eğitim ve Ekonomik Araştırmalar Şubesi, AYM-4, Ekim.
  • Gedik, Y. (2020). Döngüsel ekonomiyi anlamak: teorik bir çerçeve. Turkish Business Journal, 1(2), 13-40.
  • Ghazali, A., ve Ali, G. (2019). Investigation of key contributors of CO2 emissions in extended STIRPAT model for newly industrialized countries: a dynamic common correlated estimator (DCCE) approach. Energy Reports, 5, 242-252.
  • Goyal, S. (2020). Reducing waste in circular economy. Encycl. Renew. Sustain. Mater. 467–473.
  • Grossman, G. M. ve Krueger, A. B. (1991). Environmental impacts of a North American free trade agreement. NBER Working Papers Series, Working Paper No. 3914.
  • Grossman, G. M. ve Krueger, A. B. (1996). The inverted-U: what does it mean?. Environment and Development Economics, 1(1), 119-122.
  • İskenderoğlu, Ö., Ünlübulduk, S. N. ve Karadeniz, E. (2022), Karbon salınımının belirleyicileri: çevresel performans endeksindeki ülkelerde bir araştırma. Verimlilik Dergisi, (Döngüsel Ekonomi ve Sürdürülebilirlik Özel Sayısı), 23-36.
  • Kirchherr, J. W. ve van Santen, R. (2019). Research on the circular economy: A critique of the field. Resources, Conservation and Recycling, 151.
  • Knäble, D., de Quevedo Puente, E., Pérez-Cornejo, C. ve Baumgärtler, T. (2022). The impact of the circular economy on sustainable development: A European panel data approach. Sustainable Production and Consumption, 34, 233-243.
  • Koçan, A., Güner Gültekin, D. ve Baştuğ, M. (2019). Yeni ekonomi ve iş modelleri: döngüsel ekonomi ve paylaşım ekosistemleri. Uluslararası Ekonomi Araştırmaları ve Finansal Piyasalar Kongresi, 7-8-9 Kasım, Gaziantep.
  • Lahti, T., Wincent, J. ve Parida, V. (2018). A definition and theoretical review of the circular economy, value creation, and sustainable business models: where are we now and where should research move in the future?. Sustainability, 10 (2799), 1-19.
  • Lewandowski, M. (2016). Designing the business models for circular economy—towards the conceptual framework, Sustainability, 8(43), 1-28.
  • Lin, S., Zhao, D. ve Marinova, D. (2009). Analysis of the environmental impact of China based on STIRPAT model. Environmental Impact Assessment Review, 29(6), 341-347.
  • Lyeonov, S., Pimonenko, T., Bilan, Y., Štreimikienė, D. ve Mentel, G. (2019). Assessment of green investments’ impact on sustainable development: Linking gross domestic product per capita, greenhouse gas emissions and renewable energy. Energies, 12(20), 3891.
  • MacArthur, E. (2013). Towards the circular economy. Journal of Industrial Ecology, 2(1), 23-44.
  • Magazzino, C., Mele, M., Schneider, N. ve Sarkodie, S. A. (2021). Waste generation, wealth and GHG emissions from the waste sector: Is Denmark on the path towards circular economy?. Science of the Total Environment, 755, 142510.
  • Mısır, A. ve Arıkan, O. A. (2022). Avrupa Birliği (AB) ile Türkiye’de döngüsel ekonomi ve sıfır atık yönetimi. Çevre, İklim ve Sürdürülebilirlik, 1(1), 69-78.
  • Mutascu, M. (2018). A time-frequency analysis of trade openness and CO2 emissions in France. Energy Policy, 115, 443-455.
  • Nasrollahi, Z., Hashemi, M. S., Bameri, S. ve Mohamad Taghvaee, V. (2020). Environmental pollution, economic growth, population, industrialization, and technology in weak and strong sustainability: using STIRPAT model. Environment, Development and Sustainability, 22, 1105-1122.
  • Nedelea, A. M., Mironiuc, M., Huian, M. C., Bîrsan, M. ve Bedrule-Grigoruţă, M. V. (2018). Modelled interdependencies between intellectual capital, circular economy and economic growth in the context of bioeconomy. Amfiteatru Economic, 20(49), 616-630.
  • Neves, S. A. ve Marques, A. C. (2022). Drivers and barriers in the transition from a linear economy to a circular economy. Journal of Cleaner Production, 341, 130865.
  • Özpolat, A. (2020). Sektörel CO2 emisyonlarını etkileyen faktörlerin belirlenmesi: Gelecek-11 ülkeleri örneği. Finans Politik ve Ekonomik Yorumlar, 57(653), 115-136.
  • Özuyar, P. ve Gürsoy, Ç. (2021). Türkiye’deki bilimsel yayınlarda döngüsel ekonomi teriminin yeri. İşletme Akademisi Dergisi, 2(4), 315-331.
  • Pearce, D. W. ve Turner, R. K. (1989). Economics of natural resources and the environment. Johns Hopkins University Press.
  • Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y. ve Smith, R. J. (2001). Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16(3), 289-326.
  • Phillips, P. C. ve Perron, P. (1988). Testing for a unit root in time series regression. Biometrika, 75(2), 335-346.
  • Planing, P. (2015). Business model ınnovation in a circular economy reasons for non-acceptance of circular business models. Open Journal of Business Model Innovation, in press: 1-11.
  • Rao, C., Huang, Q., Chen, L., Goh, M. ve Hu, Z. (2023). Forecasting the carbon emissions in Hubei Province under the background of carbon neutrality: A novel STIRPAT extended model with ridge regression and scenario analysis. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 30(20), 57460-57480.
  • Sarıatlı, F., 2017. Linear economy versus circular economy: a comparative and analyzer study for optimization of economy for sustainability. Visegrad Journal on Bioeconomy and Sustainable Development, 6(1), 31-34.
  • Sauve, S., Bernard, S. ve Sloan, P., 2016. Environmental sciences, sustainable development and circular economy: alternative concepts for trans-disciplinary research. Environmental Development, 17, 48-56.
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There are 62 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language Turkish
Subjects Macroeconomics (Other), International Economics (Other), Sustainable Development
Journal Section Research Articles
Authors

Canan Şentürk 0000-0001-7714-844X

Publication Date October 29, 2023
Submission Date July 29, 2023
Published in Issue Year 2023 Volume: 14 Issue: 100. Yıl Özel Sayısı

Cite

APA Şentürk, C. (2023). Döngüsel Bir Ekonomiye Doğru Türkiye: Düşük Karbonlu Bir Ekonomi İçin Genişletilmiş STIRPAT Modeline Dayalı Analiz. Süleyman Demirel Üniversitesi Vizyoner Dergisi, 14(100. Yıl Özel Sayısı), 91-107. https://doi.org/10.21076/vizyoner.1334488

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